Restaurant Financial Model: Fast-Casual Restaurant

A standard $14 portion represents an $11 bowl and $3 beverage. With 35% of portions customized at a $4 premium, the weighted portion price is $15.40 and the 1.25-portion order is $19.25. Customization is part of that sale, not another transaction.

Each portion needs 1.5 standard assembly minutes plus the custom share times 1.5 extra minutes: 2.025 minutes initially. Preparation, two staffed assembly stations and a one-counter handover limit all apply to eligible demand. Dine-in also needs seating, using a 40-minute visit and 1.25 guests per order. Takeaway bypasses seats.

• Installed preparation is 90 portions per hour, also limited by productive hot-preparation cooks.
• Assembly and handover use their own paid crews; the same minutes are not spent twice.
• A common fulfillment fraction is rounded down by channel. Monthly averages do not model peak queues.

Initial purchased food is ($2 protein + $1.20 grains/vegetables + $0.90 sauces/drinks + 35% × $1 custom additions) divided by 90% yield, or approximately $4.94444 per portion. That produces a modeled 32.11% food-to-sales ratio. The recipe determines cost; an industry benchmark does not set it.

The team starts at 9.7 FTE and reaches 11.6. Initial roles include 2.5 hot-preparation cooks, 2.2 assembly staff and 1.7 counter/handover FTE, alongside paid management and support. The $74,880 owner salary begins in January. A 10.65% employer load and separate $1,400 monthly welfare pool are included.

• Takeaway packaging starts at $0.75/order; dine-in consumables at $0.15/order.
• Recurring salaries and expenses rise 3% annually; rent/CAM starts at $6,500/month.
• Annual expense shares reconcile annual unit costs; changing channel economics can affect monthly allocation accuracy.

The $425,700 initial asset budget includes $387,000 base capital and $38,700 spent contingency. The reused-shell fitout is $208,000. Preparation/assembly, ventilation, refrigeration, warewashing, dining fixtures and counter systems have separate allowances. January 2030 adds $15,000 replacement capital. These budgets need installed supplier bids.

Funding is $626,000 in January: $426,000 equity and $200,000 debt. The assumed loan carries 10% fixed interest over 84 monthly annuity payments, without grace, plus a $6,000 expensed fee. Without equity, the cash trough is −$335,491. Equity adds a $90,000 retained reserve and rounds the requirement upward to $1,000.

• The cash trough already contains startup losses, working capital, investment and debt service.
• Receivables use two revenue days, food inventory seven food-cost days and payables zero.
• No land purchase, refundable deposit, salvage or exit sale is included.

Base 2027 sales are $1,154,904 across 59,995 orders. EBITDA is $92,844 and net income $12,369 after the setup period. Cumulative 60-month revenue is $9,066,365, with $1,958,342 EBITDA. Later margins depend on the selected traffic, prices and labor productivity.

Monthly EBITDA first becomes and stays nonnegative in April 2027. EBIT and operating cash follow in May. Project payback is March 2029, month 27: cumulative undiscounted unlevered free cash flow recovers startup investment and deficits, without a later negative reversal. It excludes financing and terminal proceeds.

• Base minimum cash is $90,509 in April 2027, with financing held as entered.
• Low monetary stress reduces minimum cash to $38,426; it does not change physical order counts.
• Retained company cash is not an owner payout; no distributions are scheduled.