Restaurant Financial Model: Pay-by-Weight Self-Service Restaurant

Dine-in starts with 0.75 kg gross weight and a 0.25 kg plate: 0.50 kg of billable food. Takeaway uses 0.68 kg gross less 0.03 kg container tare: 0.65 kg net. Both channels initially pay $24/net kg. A transaction does not also generate a meal or admission charge; unsold food earns nothing.

Eligible demand sets planned preparation after an 8% holding-loss allowance and a 5% production buffer. Cooking and replenishment constrain output. Saleable food and staffed weighing/checkout then limit transactions. Only dine-in uses the 24 seats and 35-minute visit allowance. Whole-transaction allocation does not reproduce a queue or individual scale increments.

• Installed cooking and holding/replenishment each start at 35 prepared kg/hour.
• Checkout requires 1.25 minutes per sale and funded staff as well as two physical scales.
• A closed checkout can leave prepared food unsold; it does not erase the production cost.

The $6.20/raw-equivalent kg basket contains $3.50 protein, $1.80 grains/vegetables and $0.90 sauces/oil. Raw withdrawal equals prepared output divided by 90% preparation yield. Prepared food then incurs 8% holding loss. Remaining saleable food not sold is discarded under the selected closing policy, with zero prepared carryover.

The food-mass identity separates sold food, holding loss, unsold prepared food and preparation loss. It does not charge the whole batch twice. Paid staffing starts at 8.9 FTE and reaches 10.9, with distinct cooking, replenishment and checkout crews. The owner is paid $74,880 annually from January. Employer load is 10.65%, plus a separate $1,200 monthly welfare pool.

• Initial rent/CAM is $5,000/month; utilities are $2,200/month.
• Raw stock targets seven calendar days of withdrawal, distinct from prepared-food carryover.
• Annual cost shares preserve yearly totals but can approximate monthly physical costs and stock values.

Initial CAPEX is $354,200, including $32,200 spent contingency on $322,000 base capital. The $160,000 reused-shell fitout is separate from cooking, self-service counters, ventilation, refrigeration and warewashing. The $8,000 scales/POS/network budget includes two scales and installation allowances; it does not certify a site's legal-for-trade setup. January 2030 adds $15,000 replacement capital.

January financing is $573,000: $393,000 equity and $180,000 debt. The assumed loan is 10% fixed, amortized over 84 months without grace, with a $5,400 expensed fee. The −$317,076 trough without equity already includes the loan, debt service, startup losses and investment. Equity adds a $75,000 reserve and rounds upward to $1,000.

• Minimum Base funded cash is $75,924 in July 2027.
• Receivables use two revenue days, financial food stock seven cost days and payables zero.
• Having sufficient financing does not establish that the investment earns an attractive return.

Base 2027 revenue is $783,491 from 32,645.45 net kg sold through 54,217 transactions. EBITDA is −$84,435. Across 60 months, revenue is $6,102,667 and EBITDA $382,978, but cumulative unlevered project free cash flow still ends at −$68,667. Project payback is not reached by December 2031; no later date is extrapolated.

Monthly EBITDA becomes sustainably nonnegative in July 2027. EBIT first crosses zero in August 2027 but is only sustainably nonnegative from March 2029. Operating cash becomes and stays nonnegative in August 2027. The 60-month simple project cash ROI is −14.2%, an undiscounted, nonannualized measure using all negative monthly project FCF as its denominator.

• Low monetary stress creates a −$565,939 minimum cash balance with Base funding unchanged.
• The cash-flow pattern has three sign changes; a unique conventional IRR is not asserted.
• Project cash recovery excludes financing and terminal proceeds. No owner distributions are scheduled.